The recent coup in Niger, which saw President Mohamed Bazoum ousted by the head of his presidential guard, General Abdourahamane Tchiani, has ignited an unprecedented crisis in the Sahel region. With neighboring countries taking sides and the threat of regional war looming, the fall of Niger's democratically-elected leader could severely impact efforts to combat the dangerous jihadist insurgency in the region. As the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) vows to take military action if Bazoum is not reinstated, the situation remains highly volatile. The Risk of Regional War: The coup in Niger has raised concerns that neighboring countries may be drawn into conflict as they align themselves with either the junta or the deposed president. ECOWAS, under the leadership of Nigeria's President Bola Tinubu, has pledged military action if Bazoum is not restored to power by August 6th. This stance has been met with resistance from other countries under military rule, Burkina Faso, and Mali, and the potential for a regional war is a growing concern.

The Jihadist Threat: The Sahel region has become the epicenter of global jihadist terror, with extremist groups affiliated with al-Qaeda and Islamic State causing immense havoc and bloodshed. Over the past decade, more than 42,000 people have been killed in jihadist-related conflicts in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. The insurgency in the region is part of a broader spread of jihadism that has claimed over 100,000 lives in areas like Somalia and around Lake Chad since 2014. Jihadists Gaining Ground: The continuous rise in violence has resulted in multiple coups in the Sahel, as civilian governments struggle to restore order. However, the coup leaders have proven less competent in handling the jihadist insurgency compared to elected governments. Mali, which witnessed a coup in 2020, has seen a rise in violence even after the introduction of foreign peacekeepers and French commandos. Similarly, Burkina Faso's military ruler has declared "total war" on jihadists but has been unable to curtail their attacks, leading to a situation that some experts consider a "failed state." Niger's Unique Approach: Remarkably, Niger had been curbing jihadist violence better than its neighbors under the leadership of President Mohamed Bazoum. His strategy involved improving government services, engaging in talks with the terrorists, and relying on Western military assistance. He also utilized ceasefires and negotiations to minimize violence, drawing jihadists away from the insurgency. Niger's approach was hailed as a potential model for the region. The Risk of Unraveling: Following the coup, led by General Tchiani, Niger's successful strategy in curbing jihadist violence now faces the risk of unraveling. The junta's criticism of Bazoum's security policies, particularly the release of jihadists, could lead to a resurgence of violence. Additionally, the swift turn against Western backers and the attack on the French embassy may strain military cooperation, resulting in a potential increase in terrorist attacks. The Stakes: The coup in Niger has put the region's fragile democracy and the fight against jihadist insurgency at risk. If the coup is allowed to stand, the hope that peaceful dialogue and cooperation with Western allies could defeat the terrorists will be lost. The Sahel's future remains uncertain, and the well-being of its more than 70 million people hangs in the balance. Niger's Coup Depletes French Influence in Africa, Spoiling Macron's Reset Plan: President Emmanuel Macron's promise of a "new era" for France's relations with Africa, marked by a "partnership" of equals, suffered a severe setback with the recent military coup against Niger's elected president, Mohamed Bazoum. The putsch has not only left hopes of a fresh relationship with Africa in disarray but also dealt a blow to France's influence in the region. The incident has led to anti-French sentiments and attacks on the French embassy in Niamey, Niger's capital, culminating in the evacuation of French nationals and other Europeans. The Franco-African Reset: Six months ago, Macron vowed to create a new phase in France's relations with Africa, moving away from the past of dictating and intervening in the continent's affairs. His initiatives included joint management of French military bases by local forces and a reduction of French troops in Africa. This reset was aimed at strengthening partnerships and promoting mutual cooperation between France and African nations. France's Departure from Mali: France's decision to withdraw its troops from Mali last year was seen as a significant loss of prestige. The Operation Barkhane, a counter-jihadist mission in the region, initially achieved success in pushing back jihadist forces in Mali. However, the country's subsequent political instability and second coup led to France pulling out its forces from Mali, shutting down the Barkhane operation. Setbacks in Burkina Faso: Burkina Faso's two coups last year further diminished France's influence in the region. The leaders of the second coup ordered all French troops to leave, leaving France's reputation as a reliable ally in question. Challenges for France: Despite Macron's efforts to shift France's approach towards Africa and correct historical grievances, France faces mounting challenges in countering the post-colonial narrative of occupation and exploitation. This narrative, amplified by disinformation spread by external actors, has hindered France's reputation in the region. Additionally, the demands of a younger generation that rejects paternalistic attitudes pose further obstacles to France's relations with Africa.

France has been reevaluating its military operations in Africa and plans to adopt a lighter footprint with a more discreet presence. However, the rise of China, Russia, and Turkey's involvement in West Africa, with less scrutiny, poses competition for France in the region. European countries and the United States also play significant roles in training forces and conducting intelligence operations. The coup in Niger serves as a test for France's ability to regain influence and reshape its security approach to the continent. While France's colonial history and the presence of military bases have made it an easy target for criticism, the country's efforts to forge equal partnerships with African nations and address past grievances must be acknowledged. The focus now lies in balancing the demands of a changing generation while combating the narrative of occupation and reestablishing trust with African partners. Only through sustained cooperation and mutual respect can France hope to play a constructive role in addressing the challenges facing the Sahel region and the broader African continent.