In a week of missteps and communication breakdowns, Niger's president found himself imprisoned, and the country's democracy was hanging in the balance. The unfolding coup in Niger has opened the door for Russia and its Wagner Group paramilitary company to gain influence in the region, posing a significant geopolitical challenge for the United States and its allies. The crisis has escalated into a potential military conflict, with West African countries threatening intervention, and the U.S. and Europe scrambling for solutions to return Niger's democracy to power. A Coup in Progress: Niger's president, Mohamed Bazoum, sought refuge in a ground floor safe room of his official residence as mutineers from his presidential guard launched a coup over a personnel dispute. While Bazoum communicated with anxious allies, including a former U.S. ambassador, the coup leaders took control of the presidency compound, leaving the nation in turmoil.

Missteps and Lack of Preparedness: The U.S., which has invested heavily in arming and equipping Niger's military, found itself without key personnel in Africa posts, failing to anticipate the coup. With no ambassador in Niger or the African Union and an unstable Africa desk at the National Security Council, the U.S. struggled to mount a decisive response.
Russia Seizes the Opportunity: As the coup progressed, Russia saw an opening to expand its influence in the region. The leaders of Mali and Burkina Faso, already backed by Russia, joined forces in meetings with Vladimir Putin, while Yevgeny Prigozhin's Wagner mercenaries expressed support for the coup. The Kremlin's growing interest in the Sahel, coupled with the coup, threatened to upend Western allies in the region.
Nigeria's Concerns and Ultimatum: Nigeria, a significant military power in West Africa, feared the spread of coups in the region and took a stand against the situation in Niger. Eleven West African countries threatened military force to restore Bazoum to power if the coup wasn't reversed. The U.S. backed diplomacy but also supported Nigeria's stance in a show of solidarity with its West African partners.

As the situation remains tense, the Biden administration continues to pursue diplomatic solutions while considering all options to support Niger's democracy. However, the window for a peaceful resolution is closing, and the U.S. and its allies face the risk of losing their most important ally in a volatile part of Africa. Russia's potential gains in the region, including access to vital drone bases, underscore the high stakes for all involved parties. The unfolding coup in Niger has exposed a series of missteps and communication breakdowns that have given Russia an opportunity to exert its influence in the region. As Niger's democracy hangs in the balance, the U.S. and its allies are grappling with the risk of losing a crucial ally and facing Russia's encroachment in Western Africa. Diplomatic efforts continue, but the outcome remains uncertain, and the region faces the specter of open military conflict.